While spending Illinois into bankruptcy and driving jobs away over the last 40 years, the Democratic Party has worked to grow their base from 2 million in the Reagan years to over 3 million in 2008 and 2012. The question for 2016 is whether the record high turnout of the Obama years will continue for [...]
Party leadership choices have consequences. Illinois largely missed the “Reagan Revolution” of the 1980’s, as well as the economic boom which continued into the Bill Clinton years. Neither Bush was competitive In Illinois. While Springfield remained dominated by progressive Democrats, the party leadership wrote off Illinois as a hopeless “blue state”. It failed to grow [...]
For the March 15 Illinois Republican primary, look for a significant increase in turnout as in other 2016 primaries. Turnout could significantly exceed 1 million votes, while the Democratic turnout may be down sharply from record 2008 levels. If the turnout is over 1.25 million, Illinois may be competitive in 2016 for the first time [...]
On election night, watch for the Democratic voter turnout relative to 1992 (Bill Clinton) or 2008. Hillary has been doing worse than in her 2008 defeat, with turnout overall down 30% from the 2008 election.