While spending Illinois into bankruptcy and driving jobs away over the last 40 years, the Democratic Party has worked to grow their base from 2 million in the Reagan years to over 3 million in 2008 and 2012.
The question for 2016 is whether the record high turnout of the Obama years will continue for Hillary Clinton. Her level of support may be smaller than Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996, who campaigned more effectively here.
That would be below 2.5 million votes again, rather than over 3 million.
Al Gore and John Kerry were also closer to that level. Clinton, Gore, and Kerry won Illinois because of the decline in the Republican turnout since Reagan, who got 2.7 million votes in 1984.
If Democratic turnout declines in 2016, the Republicans could win again.